The Way This Unusual Campaign Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.
But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising together. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.
Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.
The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.
During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!
The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.
The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.
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